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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the award. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

Yet this year's race is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and recent underperformers ascending collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

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