A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
